It’s like Christmas but it’s warmer.” – Pete Rose

Today is one of the greatest day of the year. Today is Opening Day. Baseball is back. Well, MLB decided to go wacky on us this year and break Opening Day up into two days, with every team playing either yesterday or today, which is pretty ridiculous.

But for Twins fans the wait is finally over. Today we get to, once again, cheer on our Twins as they once again make a run at defending the Central Division title. This year does not come without it’s own question marks.

1. Will the losses of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, and Brian Fuentes from the bullpen be to much to bear?

1a. Will the new bullpen be effective?

2. Will Justin Morneau stay concussion free?

3. Will Joe Nathan be effective after returning from Tommy John?

4. Joe Mauer had offseason knee surgery. Will he stay healthy?

5. Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker had offseason elbow cleanup surgery. Will they be healthy and effective?

6. Can Alexi Casilla really handle being a major league starting shortstop?

7. Will Tsuyoshi Nishioka make a smooth transition from Japan to America? How good will he be?

Luckily, some of these questions appear that they will be answered favorably. Justin Morneau looks to be healthy, and hopefully he won’t have to take to much time off. Luckily for the Twins, they have the big bat of Jim Thome to step in when Morneau can’t. Joe Nathan looks to be healthy as well, time will tell if he can be anywhere near as good as he was before he got hurt. Joe Mauer looks perfectly healthy, at least for now, and not playing much in spring training probably did him good. Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker looked healthy enough in spring training, but their effectiveness will be key. Tsuyoshi Nishioka looked very good this spring, he had a batting average of .345 in spring training, and it will be interesting to see if he can perform anywhere near that level during the regular season.

Yes there are question marks, but boy is it good to have baseball season back.

Projections

Twins Projections

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Mauer is the best player on the team, plain and simple. How can you pick against him?

Twins Cy Young: Francisco Liriano
Liriano was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball last year.

Twins Best Rookie: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
I think Nishioka will be better than many people think he will be, but he’s no Ichiro.

Most Improved Player: Denard Span
Span was abysmal last year. Look for him to get back on track

A.L. Central Standings Projections
1. Twins
2. White Sox
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals

MLB Predictions

A.L. MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
N.L. MVP: Hanley Ramirez
A.L. Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
N.L. Cy Young: Tommy Hanson
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman
A.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Carlos Santana
N.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Mike Stanton
A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Justin Morneau
N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Carlos Beltran
A.L. Playoff Predictions: Red Sox over Twins, A’s over Yankees, Red Sox over A’s
N.L. Playoff Predictions: Phillies over Giants, Rockies over Brewers, Rockies over Phillies
World Series Prediction: Rockies over Red Sox

Those were the 2 raw emotions felt by Twins fans everywhere one year ago today. We could not be happier that Joe Mauer finally, FINALLY resigned with the Twins. We finally were assured that Joe Mauer, one of the greatest players to put on the Twins uniform and potentially the greatest catcher to ever play baseball, would not be leaving Minnesota any time soon.

Not as many people are as happy about his deal anymore. They think it was to much. If all things were equal, it was an overpayment, but it was a price that needed to be paid. The Yankees and Red Sox, two of the teams with the highest payrolls, are still in a bad place catching wise. They would have loved to get a piece of Mauer this offseason.

The Twins kept Mauer. It needed to be done. Let’s rekindle some of the joy we had last year.

Happy Joe Mauer Day.

Associated Press

After months of waiting and recent rumors that he may be signing with the Texas Rangers, Jim Thome has re-signed with the Twins.

The Twins announced today that they are bringing Jim Thome back on a one year $3 milllion deal. Thome will also earn incentives  based on playing time.

I see this as a terrific move for the Twins. It appeared earlier in the offseason that Thome was becoming more money hungry and wanted to “make up for what he didn’t earn last season.“ However, the Twins again got him for a price below what he’s worth, and likely less than the Rangers would have paid.

Thome is great security in the case that Justin Morneau is not 100%. Bill Smith says the team is ”optimistic he will be ready for Spring Training.” As I’d like to hear it be certain that Morneau will for certain be ready to go, that statement scares me. As good as Morneau is, Jim Thome lessens the blow to the lineup with Morneau out.

The only negative side to this signing is the fact that the Twins would be much better off with a right handed hitter that could potentially play some first base or outfield, but the fact is that they got Thome on a terrific bargain. The “ideal” player just isn’t available, and especially not at Thome’s price. Some have argued that Vladimir Guerrero would have been the ideal guy, but he would cost upwards of $6 million and I think Target Field would play against his strengths, making him much less valuable.

This deal likely ends the possibility of “Manny being Manny in Minnesota”.

As frustrating as it is, once again there were 5 ballots left blank. I do not know how you can be given the honor of voting for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and not vote. It is disgusting.

The second part of this post is much more typical of what will be normal for this blog. As many reports have suggested, the Twins are indeed a favorite to re-sign Carl Pavano. It just seems like it makes sense for Pavano to want to return to Minnesota. The only other team that has any rumors suggesting that they want him is the Washington Nationals. If I were Pavano I’d want to steer clear of Washington. I don’t have anything against the franchise personally, it actually does look like a promising young franchise with the likes of Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, and many more players either just reaching the big leagues or still to come in the coming years. And of course their free agent signing of Jason Werth must not be forgotten. I just don’t think they have a real shot of being good for a few years, and Pavano will be gone by the time that happens. This is why it makes sense for Pavano to want to return to the Twins who are contenders.

It only makes sense for the Twins to bring back Pavano on the right deal. There is no way he should be given the three  year deal he seeks. I would be most comfortable with a one year deal, but I don’t see how he signs a deal for any less than 2 years. I still think that he does indeed re-sign with the Twins, but there do need to be alternate plans in the case that signs with the Nationals or any other team that could very well suddenly decide they are in need of Pavano’s services.

One player that I see as a relatively low risk-high reward replacement to Pavano is Justin Duchscherer. Duchscherer is an injury prone pitcher. There is no getting around that. That being said he can still bring good value. Since he has been hurt his price tag won’t be very high. Last year he was given a $1.75 million contract. He only pitched 5 games before having season-ending left hip surgery. After that I can’t see his price tag going up. The one thing he wants is to be signed as a starter and not to be put into the bullpen. I think that if the Twins can see him as Pavano’s replacement they can offer him that.

Kyle Terada/US Presswire

Luckily for him he has been hurt with injuries to various parts of his body instead of always re-injuring one part such as an elbow or a shoulder. This has given Duchscherer the feeling that he can be healthy. He says “I don’t feel anything’s wrong with me anymore,” and he “…can’t imagine what else could go wrong.”

Duchscherer has shown that when healthy he can be a very good pitcher. In the years that he has thrown at least 50 innings Duchscherer has never had an ERA above 3.27. Only once did it ever reach 3.00. In the other 3 seasons it was it’s highest at a mark of 2.91.

Of course, ERA is a flawed statistic. FIP and xFIP do not nearly say as many good things about Duchscherer as ERA does. Only once did he have a FIP lower than his ERA in a year where he threw at least 50 innings. That was in 2006 when he had a 2.79 FIP and a 2.91 ERA. Never did he have an xFIP lower than his ERA. Some could argue that these numbers suggest that he is outperforming what he is capable of and that it is not likely to continue. I do not think this is the case. He has put up a trend of his ERA being lower than his FIP and xFIP. It is something he has shown he can do.

Duchscherer’s WAR shows again that he would be a good investment. Out of all of the years that he has put up at least 50 innings only once has he had a WAR lower than 1.6, and that was his first year throwing at least that many innings. Being as a win is worth ≈ $5 million if he can be had from anywhere from $1-2 million he should be a good bargain. If he can put up a 1.6 WAR he’d be worth ≈ $8 million. If he can put up more than 1.6 WAR he’d be worth even more. In 2008 he was worth 2.9 WAR which at the time was worth ≈ $13 million and would be worth even more now.

In short I think Duchscherer would be a nice fairly low risk-high reward signing for the Twins. If it works out you’ve added a pretty decent pitcher and if it doesn’t it’s only a minor loss.

Happy New Year!

Game 1: Rangers over Giants

Game 2: Giants over Rangers

Game 3: Giants over Rangers

Game 4: Rangers over Giants

Game 5: Rangers over Giants

Game 6: Giants over Rangers

Game 7: Rangers over Giants

That’s right. The Rangers will win the series with Cliff Lee winning games 1, 4, and 7.

AP Photo/Rob Carr

Sometimes things happen that are completely unreal. These are things that you can only dream of happening. Take for instance the dream that almost every young kid has; the dream that someday they could pitch in the big leagues, the dream that they could be the best pitcher in baseball, the dream that they could throw a no-hitter in the playoffs.

Well, sometimes these dreams do come true.

In dream-like fashion Roy Halladay started the Philadelphia Phillies playoff run with a bang last Wednesday. In fact, he made history by throwing only the second no-hitter in the history of the MLB playoffs. The first no-hitter in the history of the playoffs was a Perfect Game by Don Larsen in the fifth game of the 1956 World Series.

Even more impressive is the fact that this was his first appearance in the playoffs of his career. Since he was with the Toronto Blue Jays for the entirety of his career before being traded to the Phillies this past off-season he never had a chance to go to the playoffs.

In fact, ever since that trade Halladay has been living a dream. Let’s face it. You’re the best pitcher in baseball. You play on one of the worst teams in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. So what do you do? You ask to be traded to the best team in the other league, the weaker league, the Philadelphia Phillies. You get traded. You put together a Cy Young year including MLB’s 20th perfect game in history. You do this on the way to winning the division with the best record in all of baseball. Then you go out and throw a no-hitter in the first game of the playoffs, something that’s only been done once. And that makes it a no-hitter in the regular season and the playoffs, something that’s never been done before. Ever.

Mr. Halladay, on behalf of baseball fans everywhere, I’d like to ask you to never wake up.

On this day, there was nobody that was going to be able to stop Roy Halladay. Not even NL MVP candidate Joey Votto. Even though he had the best on-base percentage in the Major Leagues, he could not reach base. Only one man could reach base, and that’s not because he did anything special, it’s because Roy Halladay barely missed on two pitches and ended up walking him. That man would be Jay Bruce.

His “stuff” was magical. When interviewed his catcher Carlos Ruiz said that he was consistent on both sides of the plate with a good fastball and cutter. And what were the first words out of his mouth when he was asked about Halladay’s stuff?

“Oh, my God.”

Every once in a while a day comes along where a pitcher has the stuff like Halladay had last Wednesday; the stuff that’s un-hittable. Rarely does it happen to the same pitcher twice. Roy Halladay’s a rare pitcher.

It wasn’t just Halladay’s stuff that was extraordinary. Halladay, a career .141 hitter, went 1 for 3 driving in and scoring one of the Phillies runs. That just adds to the magnitude of this special day.

What is the one thing Halladay has yet to do? He has never won the World Series. I am sure it’s all part of the dream, a dream that seems to have no down points.

Be thankful that you have been able to witness this dream season. Someday you will be able to tell your grandkids that you were watching when Roy Halladay rewrote history.

*This article was written for The Racquet

Unfortunately, this does mean there may be less Twins writing on this site, but overall there should be much more baseball stories.

Thanks so much for the support, and thanks for reading!

To others October means the end of the Major League Baseball season. If you are lucky your team is one of the eight advancing to the playoffs, but if not you are going to  be stuck waiting around until next March for another feeling of optimism as you believe your team has to be the best team in baseball. Yes, the regular season is over, and that means the time to give awards to extraordinary players is here.

There is always plenty of debate near the end of the major league season as to which players should receive the prestigious personal awards. The main three are the Cy Young Award, the Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award, and the Rookie of the Year Award. The Cy Young Award goes to the best pitcher, the MVP goes to the best player, and the Rookie of the Year Award goes to the top rookie.

This year there has been a particularly noticeable split on the American League Cy Young Award. The split is basically between two different groups in the baseball community. The baseball traditionalists believe that CC Sabathia of the New York Yankees is an easy choice for the award based on the fact that he leads the American League with wins with 21 victories.

Conversely, those who believe in Sabermetrics, or analyzing what happens on the baseball diamond, especially using statistics, believe that those who think that Cy Young Award should go to the athlete with the most victories are woefully ignorant. They believe that there are more important statistics to look at to see how well a pitcher performed other than wins.

I imagine you may be wondering how this can be true. The pitcher who pitched the best won the most games, right? Wrong. Wins are a very flawed statistic because they are affected just as much by your team’s offense as well as the way you pitch. Consider Sabathia pitches for the Yankees, who have scored the most runs in baseball. Would he be any worse of a pitcher if he pitched for the Mariners who have scored roughly 60 percent of the runs the Yankees have? No, he wouldn’t. But he wouldn’t have 21 victories, that’s for sure.

Did I mention it’s tough to rack up victories for the Seattle Mariners? Tell that to Felix Hernandez. There are many statistics to show how much better “King Felix” pitched than Sabathia. One way of seeing how well a pitcher pitched is looking at how many runs he’s given up. This is done with earned run average (ERA). As with most of the ratio statistics in baseball, ERA is per nine innings pitched. Sabathia has an ERA of 3.18. Not to say that this is a bad ERA by any means. It is very good, but Hernandez has an ERA of 2.27.

And it’s not just ERA that Hernandez leads Sabathia in. He leads him in nearly every meaningful category except for wins. He leads him in strikeouts, 232 to 197. He leads in innings pitched, 249.2 to 237.2. Sabathia even trails him in the ability to keep guys from reaching base. In the stat that shows this, walks plus hits per innings pitched (WHIP), Sabathia has a mark of 1.19 while Hernandez’s is 1.06.

There is a number that takes many statistics and figures out how well players have really performed. This statistic is called wins above replacement, or WAR. Take note, this is not how many wins they add to a team, but rather how many more they add than a replacement-level player. A replacement-level player is a player who can be easily obtained. Think of a minor league player or a free agent who nobody signs except in an emergency. Hernandez has a WAR of 6.4 while Sabathia has a WAR of 4.8. Those 1.6 additional wins may not seem like a lot, but if the San Diego Padres had that extra 1.6 wins, they would have made the playoffs rather than ending their season one game out of the wild card.

In the National League there is much less controversy on who should get the NL version of the award. Most everyone agrees that the award belongs to Roy Halladay. Not that I disagree, but I think it should be much closer than it appears. Adam Wainwright is neck and neck with Halladay in nearly every statistic, and Josh Johnson has pitched much better than either of them, albeit in many fewer innings. Also, Ubaldo Jimenez deserves consideration as well.

Halladay leads all of them in victories with 21, Wainwright has 20, Jimenez has 19, and Johnson has 11. Johnson’s ERA is 2.30, Wainwright’s is 2.42, Halladay’s is 2.44, and Jimenez’s is 2.88. Halladay has the most innings pitched at 250.2, Wainwright has 230.1, Jimenez has 221.2, and Johnson has 183.2. Halladay leads them in strikeouts with 219, Jimenez has 214, Wainwright has 213, and Johnson has 186.

Do not be mislead though. Johnson has pitched less and he strikes out a higher percentage of the batters he faces. Johnson strikes out 9.11 per 9 innings, Jimenez 8.69 per 9 innings, Wainwright 8.32 per nine, and Halladay 7.86. Halladay has the lowest WHIP of the bunch at 1.04, Wainwright has a mark of 1.05, Johnson’s is 1.11, and Jimenez’s is 1.15.

Yes, those stats are nice, but how much are they worth? Halladay leads them with a 6.8 WAR, and the other three all have a WAR of 6.2.

I think WAR has it right. If I got to vote for the award I would vote for Halladay. Yes, you can make cases for the other 3, but in the end the amount of innings that Halladay has thrown does it for me.

I think it sounds like the voters will get it right. The favorites for the awards are Hernandez and Halladay on ESPN, and that is exactly how it should be.

*This Article was previously published for The Racquet

Even though that 9 out of 10 18 thing is absurd.